the weather forecast:this year expects to set records high-Vol. 1
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed a strong sense of crisis, stating, "The era of global warming has ended, and the era of the Earth boiling has arrived.”
While reading climate articles concerned with abnormal weather due to rising temperatures, I often came across terms like El Niño and La Niña. I wondered about their relationship with extreme weather events. I somewhat knew about El Niño, but what exactly is La Niña?
Upon researching, I found that El Niño is characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures off the coast of Peru in South America. Conversely, La Niña features lower than average temperatures in the same region. As a result, El Niño leads to a rise in global average temperatures, while La Niña tends to lower them slightly. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this year's El Niño is expected to last from April to June, with La Nina following from August onward.
You might think it's good that La Niña brings cooler temperatures, but recent research has shown that these phenomena are occurring more frequently and with greater extremity due to global warming.
Since 2005, La Niña and El Niño have alternated about every year. However, in recent years, El Niño events have occurred consecutively for two years, with the second year experiencing a significant temperature increase compared to the first. In 2024, this year falls into the second consecutive year, predicting higher temperatures from spring to summer compared to the previous year. Such phenomena are known to affect the position and strength of global atmospheric circulation systems, potentially triggering extreme weather events not only in the equatorial Pacific but around the world.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that last year's global average temperature was approximately 1.45 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, making it the highest in over 170 years of recorded history.
The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service has already reported that this March was the warmest on record. Looking at the average temperature from last April to this March, it has exceeded the pre-industrial levels by 1.58 degrees Celsius. This number exceeds the 1.5-degree threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
Many experts believe that this year could surpass last year's global average temperature.
I think that more news should be spread about the El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena so it can give time for people to prepare for possible extreme weather events. Although there is nothing we can do to prevent these occurrences, educating people about this topic can help us prepare for these events.
How will the world be impacted as a result? To be continued in Part 2.